|Summary:||Apple supply chain: New iPhones unveiled: iPhone X takes center stage; 3D-sensing is the highlight
iPhone X dominated Appleˇ¦s product launch event. The most important specs are roughly in-line with expectations. iPhone X 64GB/256GB versions are priced roughly in-line at US$999/US$1,149 respectively. We assume demand for the new iPhones models will mainly come from replacement of iPhone 6/6s (including the plus versions), the best-selling iPhone models to date. Coupled with special affection toward the iPhone 10th anniversary version, we estimate overall iPhone unit sales at 222mn (+3.42% YoY) for 2017, and 245mn (+10.1% YoY) in 2018.
According to our supply chain check, given component and assembly yield issues, iPhone X production volume was small in AUG, but should ramp sequentially starting from SEP and peak in NOV for assemblers. We estimate iPhone shipment of ~150-160mn units throughout 2H17. Apple will begin shipping iPhone X on NOV 3, with preorder starting from OCT 27, a schedule slightly behind market expectation but in-line with ours.
„« Our Buy picks among 3D sensing plays:
- Largan (3008 TT): Buy, TP at NT$6,400 (20x 2018F P/E)
- Tong Hsing (6271 TT): Buy, TP at NT$157 (19x 2018F P/E)
„« Our Buy picks among other component makers:
- TSMC (2330 TT): Buy, TP at NT$250 (3.6x 2018F P/B)
- WinSemi (3105 TT): Buy, TP at NT$213 (21x 2018F P/E)
- Flexium (6269 TT): Buy, TP at NT$155 (12x 2018F P/E)
- Compeq (2313 TT): Buy, TP at NT$38 (12x 2018F P/E)
- Delta (2308 TT): Buy, TP at NT$192 (21x 2018F P/E)
- Merry (2439 TT): Buy, TP at NT$280 (17x 2018F P/E)
- Catcher (2474 TT): Buy, TP at NT$407 (11x 2018F P/E)
- Yageo (2327 TT): Buy, TP at NT$248 (14x 2018F P/E)