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Title:CTBC FHC (2891 TT) Buy, TP: NT$23
Download File:2891 TT CTBC note 190823--sinopac.pdf 
Summary:Lower TP by 4% to NT$23 (1.35x 2019F P/B); Maintain Buy: We forecast net profit rising to NT$41.66bn (+15.6% YoY), or EPS at NT$2.09. However, considering the narrowing TWD spread amid excessive liquidity in Taiwan, domestic banksĄŻ reliance on FCY positions to grow their net interest incomes will continue. CTBC BankĄŻs higher USD exposure vs. peers and agile asset allocation will aid its net interest income performance. This, along with a low base in TaiwanĄŻs 2H18 net profit and a rebound in unrealized gains/losses balance will fuel YoY earnings growth going forward. Valuation-wise, CTBC is attractively valued at 1.15x end-2019 BVPs, toward the lower band of its 3-year P/B of 0.95x-1.65x. We retain our Buy rating, but we adjust our TP from NT$24 (1.4x 2019 P/B) considering US rate cuts will cap spread performance for financial plays.
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